How it works
One number for every player
We use the betting odds and each player’s recent form to predict how many fantasy points they’ll score. We call it xPts, short for expected points.
What “expected points” means
Football is unpredictable, and a striker won’t score every week. So instead of guessing one result, we ask: if this match were played 100 times, how many points would this player score on average? That average is their xPts. The higher it is, the better the pick.
How we work it out
Start with the odds
Bookmakers are very good at predicting matches. We take their odds and work out how many goals each team is likely to score.
Share the goals out
Those goals get split between the players. A star striker gets a big slice, a defender a small one, based on how they’ve actually been playing.
Add up the points
We add up every way a player earns fantasy points, from goals and assists to clean sheets, saves and minutes played, into a single number called xPts.
An example
Say we’re rating a striker for his next game:
The odds make his team likely to score about 2 goals.
He normally gets a third of his team’s goals, so about 0.7 for him.
A forward’s goal is worth 5 points, so that’s roughly 3.5 points.
Add a point for playing, plus the odd assist and shot on target.
Against a weaker team he’d score more, against a top side less, so the same player is worth more some weeks than others. The fixture does a lot of the work.
Set pieces matter
Penalties, free kicks and corners are some of the safest fantasy points there are. A player who takes his team’s penalties has a real edge over one who doesn’t, so we build set-piece duty into every projection. On the players page you’ll spot the takers by their PK, FK and COR badges, and you can filter to show only them.
The numbers on the site
xPts
Our prediction of how many fantasy points a player will score. Higher is better.
Value
Points for the price. A cheap player with high value frees up budget for stars.
Floor
Their worst likely game. A high floor rarely blanks; a low floor needs an easy fixture to deliver.
Start%
How likely they are to start, rather than warm the bench.
P60%
Chance they play 60+ minutes, which earns a bonus appearance point.
Own%
How many other managers have already picked them.
The numbers update every day as the odds and team news change. It’s a guide to help you decide, not a guarantee.
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