World Cup 2026 · Schedule

Teams Chance

Each cell shows the team's expected chance of winning that round, from our own model. A small ·m marks early projections, rounds we estimate before the fixtures are drawn (e.g. knockouts pre-draw).

≥ 70% 55–70% 45–55% 30–45% < 30%
Team
Round 1Jun 11
Round 2Jun 18
Round 3Jun 24
Round of 32Jun 28
Round of 16Jul 4
Quarter-finalsJul 9
Semi-finalsJul 14
FinalJul 18
Czechia
Czechia
Group A
KORKOR33%
RSARSA48%
MEXMEX19%
Mexico
Mexico
Group A
RSARSA68%
KORKOR52%
CZECZE53%
South Africa
South Africa
Group A
MEXMEX11%
CZECZE22%
KORKOR25%
South Korea
South Korea
Group A
CZECZE36%
MEXMEX21%
RSARSA48%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Group B
CANCAN20%
SUISUI15%
QATQAT59%
Canada
Canada
Group B
BIHBIH53%
QATQAT73%
SUISUI26%
Qatar
Qatar
Group B
SUISUI7%
CANCAN9%
BIHBIH16%
Switzerland
Switzerland
Group B
QATQAT79%
BIHBIH61%
CANCAN46%
Brazil
Brazil
Group C
MORMOR60%
HAIHAI92%
SCOSCO69%
Haiti
Haiti
Group C
SCOSCO13%
BRABRA2%
MORMOR9%
Morocco
Morocco
Group C
BRABRA16%
SCOSCO49%
HAIHAI76%
Scotland
Scotland
Group C
HAIHAI67%
MORMOR22%
BRABRA11%
Australia
Australia
Group D
TURTUR19%
USAUSA20%
PARPAR26%
Paraguay
Paraguay
Group D
USAUSA24%
TURTUR27%
AUSAUS44%
Türkiye
Türkiye
Group D
AUSAUS54%
PARPAR43%
USAUSA35%
USA
USA
Group D
PARPAR49%
AUSAUS55%
TURTUR38%
Curaçao
Curaçao
Group E
GERGER2%
ECUECU7%
CIVCIV10%
Côte d'Ivoire
Côte d'Ivoire
Group E
ECUECU25%
GERGER15%
CURCUR72%
Ecuador
Ecuador
Group E
CIVCIV41%
CURCUR79%
GERGER19%
Germany
Germany
Group E
CURCUR94%
CIVCIV64%
ECUECU58%
Japan
Japan
Group F
NEDNED25%
TUNTUN54%
SWESWE46%
Netherlands
Netherlands
Group F
JPNJPN49%
SWESWE59%
TUNTUN65%
Sweden
Sweden
Group F
TUNTUN49%
NEDNED17%
JPNJPN25%
Tunisia
Tunisia
Group F
SWESWE22%
JPNJPN18%
NEDNED14%
Belgium
Belgium
Group G
EGYEGY59%
IRIIRI68%
NZLNZL77%
Egypt
Egypt
Group G
BELBEL17%
NZLNZL56%
IRIIRI40%
Iran
Iran
Group G
NZLNZL50%
BELBEL12%
EGYEGY28%
New Zealand
New Zealand
Group G
IRIIRI23%
EGYEGY18%
BELBEL7%
Cabo Verde
Cabo Verde
Group H
ESPESP3%
URUURU12%
KSAKSA39%
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Group H
URUURU13%
ESPESP4%
CPVCPV35%
Spain
Spain
Group H
CPVCPV89%
KSAKSA87%
URUURU59%
Uruguay
Uruguay
Group H
KSAKSA66%
CPVCPV67%
ESPESP18%
France
France
Group I
SENSEN68%
IRAIRA87%
NORNOR53%
Iraq
Iraq
Group I
NORNOR7%
FRAFRA4%
SENSEN12%
Norway
Norway
Group I
IRAIRA80%
SENSEN46%
FRAFRA21%
Senegal
Senegal
Group I
FRAFRA12%
NORNOR27%
IRAIRA65%
Algeria
Algeria
Group J
ARGARG11%
JORJOR58%
AUTAUT27%
Argentina
Argentina
Group J
DZADZA69%
AUTAUT59%
JORJOR82%
Austria
Austria
Group J
JORJOR73%
ARGARG16%
DZADZA42%
Jordan
Jordan
Group J
AUTAUT10%
DZADZA17%
ARGARG6%
Colombia
Colombia
Group K
UZBUZB69%
DCODCO67%
PORPOR28%
DR Congo
DR Congo
Group K
PORPOR8%
COLCOL11%
UZBUZB37%
Portugal
Portugal
Group K
DCODCO77%
UZBUZB79%
COLCOL45%
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan
Group K
COLCOL11%
PORPOR7%
DCODCO34%
Croatia
Croatia
Group L
ENGENG19%
PANPAN65%
GHAGHA54%
England
England
Group L
CROCRO56%
GHAGHA73%
PANPAN78%
Ghana
Ghana
Group L
PANPAN47%
ENGENG10%
CROCRO19%
Panama
Panama
Group L
GHAGHA25%
CROCRO13%
ENGENG7%